Exit Polls in NA-4 (Peshawar – IV) By-Elections Give Clear Lead to PTI


Thursday (October 26, 2017)

The exit poll exercise conducted by the Coalition for Elections and Democracy (CED) in National Assembly Constituency NA-4 gave a clear lead to PTI candidate Arbab Amer Ayub. The survey was conducted on a sample size of 1,742 voters; including 1,251 men and 491 women. The responses were collected from 40 sampled polling stations of a total of 269.

The survey results show that PTI bagged 43% of the votes against 21% by closest rival ANP. PMN (N), PPPP and JI candidates could capture only 16%, 9% and 8% votes, respectively.

The analysis shows some interesting trends. The gender breakdown of the exit poll result shows that 44% of male voters and 40% of female voters voted for the PTI; while the ANP got 21% of male and 22% of female votes. Interestingly, the JI that got only 5% of male votes got as many as 13% of female votes.

The voting activity also has clear connection with educational qualifications of the voters. The PTI was a clear choice of all educational qualification groups with a clear rising trend when it came to higher certification. Among the illiterate, the PTI grabbed 33% of votes and the ANP 27% of votes. 48% of matriculate voters voted for the PTI while the PML (N) was at second place with 18%. The PTI was choice of 54% graduate voters while ANP of 16%. Moving to Master’s degree, the PTI was popular among 60% of voters while the ANP was at second position with 18% of voters.

The voter choice also indicates a connection with the age group. 55% of young voter aged between 18 and 22 years voted for the PTI, while this percentage dropped to 48% among voters aged between 23 and 35 years. This percentage further drops to 38% when we talk about the age group of 36-50; while the percentage of the ANP rises to 23%. It was 18% in the age group of 18-22. Among voters aged between 51 and 65, the ANP was the most popular party with 31% support, having a very thin margin of less than 1% over the PTI.

Talking about the occupation groups, among the self-employed professional degree holders, the PTI and ANP were equally popular with 33% of votes. The 49% of business group supported the PTI while only 18% supported the ANP. Among daily wagers, the PTI grabbed 45% and ANP 24% of votes. Industry workers also chose the PTI with 32% while the ANP improved its position with 28% of votes. 41% and 22% unemployed voters supported the PTI and ANP, respectively. Moreover, the PTI got maximum support from 62% of students, while the PML (N) and ANP lagged behind with 18% and 12% of votes, respectively.

About CED: CED is a civil society coalition for voter education, election observation and strengthening democratic institutions. Its secretariat is based at CPDI

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