Exit Polls in NA-154 (Lodhran-I) By-Elections results shows that both PTI and PMLN Running Neck and Neck

Monday (February 12, 2018)


The exit poll exercise conducted by the Coalition for Elections and Democracy (CED) in bye-elections of National Assembly Constituency NA-154 indicates that both principal parties running neck and neck. PTI candidate bagged 46.74% votes as against 45.55% votes bagged by PMLN candidate. The survey was conducted on a sample size of 1427 voters; including 917 males, 510 females. The responses were collected from 17% of sampled polling stations. Total number of Registered voters in the constituency is 4,31,002 including 2,36,496 male voters and 1,94,506 female voters. Total number of polling stations set up in the constituency is 338 with 1043 polling booths, 566 for male voters and 477 for female voters. This report presents the responses from the votes from sampled polling stations taken throughout the day. PPPP continued its dismal performance in the Punjab by claiming only 3.71% of the polled votes.


The analysis of exit poll data shows some interesting trends. The gender breakdown of the exit poll result shows that PMLN candidate attracted more males than females. PMLN vote mix contain 70% of male votes as against 30% of the female votes. For PTI, male-female ratio remained 58% to 42%.


The voting activity also has clear connection with educational qualifications of the voters. PMLN is a clear choice for 3 bottom educational groups that include illiterate, primary and matric. As the educational qualification increases, the voter base of PTI also increases. PTI enjoys majority among voters with educational qualification as Graduate, Masters and M.Phil/PhD.


The connection between age group and vote choice remained consistent with the past trends. PTI remained clear choice of younger voters. PTI enjoys a clear lead among voters from age group 18-22 and 23-35. As the voter grows in age, PMLN starts impressing them. PMLN is a clear favorite for the age groups 35-50, 51-65 and 65+.


The voter choice from different professional groups also remained consistent with the traditional trends. PTI enjoys popularity among students, housewives, government and private jobs groups. PMLN has majority among unemployed, daily wagers, industry workers, and self-employed groups.


About CED: CED is a civil society coalition for voter education, election observation and strengthening democratic institutions. Its secretariat is based at CPDI


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